1. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Influence level: Big
Publication time: Usually in the first half of every month
Impact on the market: A lower-than-expected result is good, and a higher-than-expected result is bad.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an important tool for measuring the change in the price of a basket of goods and services consumed by ordinary people. It is used to assess the level of inflation and its impact on the consumer life of people in a particular area and over a certain period of time.
CPI data provides important information for economic policy decisions. Based on this data, policies can be adjusted to ensure price stability and economic stability. A change in CPI can strongly influence the Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate decision and other Central Bank decisions.
If CPI falls sharply compared to the previous period, or lower than forecast, it will reduce pressure on inflation. Since then, the Fed can achieve its deflation target soon without raising interest rates too much, or even lowering interest rates. This will make Bitcoin, Altcoin increase in value.
If the CPI rises higher than expected, it could put pressure on inflation, lead to the Fed tightening monetary policy and raise interest rates, and will make the crypto market more difficult.
2. Fed’s decisions on interest rates
Influence level: Big
Publication period: Usually 8 times per year
Market Impact: Lowering interest rates is good for the crypto market, rising is the opposite
An increase in interest rates could reduce the amount that investors can borrow and invest in crypto, leading to a lower cryptocurrency market price. Because of rising interest rates, traditional investments such as bonds and savings will become more attractive, causing investors to move away from cryptocurrencies.
A reduction in interest rates could create a redundant monetary environment, which could lead to the search for assets with a higher store of value, including cryptocurrencies. This helps the cryptocurrency market grow strongly.
3. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Influence: Big
Publication period: 30 days after each quarter
Impact on the market: Lower-than-expected results are good for crypto and vice versa
When GDP increases, this indicates the economic growth of that country, which can lead to an increase in the value of that country’s currency. This makes the USD grow and in the current context, the Fed can rely on this to maintain its tightening interest rate policy. This will make crypto can be difficult.
If GDP falls or falls short of expectations, this can devalue that country’s currency and cause a drop in the cryptocurrency market. This will likely cause the USD to fall and the Fed to loosen monetary policy. Thereby investors can pour money into the crypto market as a way to protect asset value against economic downturn.
4. American Non-farm Newsletter
Influence level: Big
Publication time: Usually on the first Friday of the month
Impact on the market: A worse-than-expected outcome is good for crypto and vice versa
When the Non-farm News Feed grows better than expected (Employment Index rises, Unemployment rate falls and wage growth is positive), it will increase confidence in the economy and thereby push up the value of USD increased. This could negatively impact the cryptocurrency market.
If the Non-farm News Feed shows a weaker-than-expected or lower-than-expected employment situation, this could dampen confidence in the economy and push down the value of the USD. At that time, the cryptocurrency will probably increase in price.
5. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Influence level: Medium to large
Publication time: Usually in the first half of every month
Impact on the market: Lower-than-expected results are good for crypto and vice versa
When PPI increases better than forecast, it means strong economic growth, which is expected to lead to an appreciation of the USD. This leaves the crypto market potentially negatively affected.
Conversely, if the manufacturing index falls below expectations or shows signs of decline, the crypto market value could increase as investors pour money into crypto as a hedge against the risk of an economic downturn.
6. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Influence level: Medium to large
Publication time: Usually on the first business day of the month
Impact on the market: Lower-than-expected results are good for the crypto market, and vice versa
If the PMI is below 50 or the result is lower than forecast, it indicates a recession in the economy, a falling labor market, the Fed may cut interest rates and the dollar will depreciate. This will cause the crypto market to grow.
If the PMI is above 50 or better than forecast, this shows that the economy is growing, the labor market will increase, interest rates will increase and the value of the dollar will also increase. This will negatively impact crypto.
7. Personal consumption expenditure (PCE)
Influence level: Medium to large
Announcement time: Usually at the end of the month
Impact on the market: Lower-than-expected results are good for crypto and vice versa
Personal Consumption Spending (PCE) affects crypto by influencing the decision of the US Central Bank (FED) on monetary policy and interest rates. If PCE is high, the Fed may decide to raise interest rates to control inflation. This can reduce the value of high-risk assets like crypto.
However, if PCE increases slowly or below expectations, the Fed may decide to keep interest rates unchanged or lower to stimulate economic growth. This can increase the value of crypto, as investing in high-risk assets can become more attractive with low interest rates.
8. Retail Sales in the US
Influence level: Medium to large
Publication time: Usually in the first half of every month
Impact on crypto: Lower-than-expected results are good for crypto and vice versa
If retail sales fall more than forecast, it indicates a decline in consumer demand, which could lead to an economic downturn. This will cause the Fed to loosen monetary policy or slow down the rate of interest rate increases, thereby benefiting the crypto market.
Conversely, when retail sales increase more than expected, it shows that consumer demand is increasing, helping to boost economic growth and is a sign of economic recovery. If placed in the context of high inflation like the present, this will help strengthen the decision of the Fed to raise interest rates, thereby making crypto difficult.
9. FOMC Meeting (FOMC Meeting Minutes)
In addition to the Fed’s interest rate decisions, usually in a month, the FOMC will have a separate meeting to announce unanimity on policies and comments on the US economy.
In these meetings, there will be senior figures from the Fed as well as the FOMC and they will talk about their views on the US economy. Such views may include statements on crypto-related issues such as inflation, interest rate policy, or even occasional legal thoughts on crypto. If this happens then the crypto market will react.
10. Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell
During the FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also often give a private speech.
The content of the speech will have views on the direction and policies of the Fed as well as the Fed’s target forecast on interest rates, inflation, the US economy… This will make the cryptocurrency market volatile.
11. European Central Bank (ECB) meeting
In addition to the decisions of the Fed, the periodic meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB) from time to time will have an impact on the world financial markets as well as the cryptocurrency market.
Usually, these meetings shape the monetary policy of the euro area. In certain economic contexts (e.g. economic crisis or war), this event will have a significant effect on cryptocurrencies.
see more : The Kakarot zkEVM project is invested by Vitalik Buterin and StarkWare