The slight price fluctuations of Bitcoin continue over the weekend, with BTC currently trading at $29,421 at the time of writing. This stable price movement has had a notable negative impact on altcoins. The ongoing trading within a narrow range for both BTC and altcoins for several weeks might hold some implications for investors.
The altcoin market experienced a challenging period in 2022 and appeared neutral but hopeful in the first half of 2023. The value of altcoins relative to BTC hit historic lows. Based on long-term altcoin season data, the altcoin market dropped to levels last seen in 2019-2020. This alone signals a potential price increase for investors. Historical data shows that these low points appeared before the total2 chart’s exponential price growth, starting in late 2020.
Furthermore, data from the Blockchain Center on potential altcoin seasons illustrates the relationship between Bitcoin (BTC) price growth and the price growth of the top 50 altcoins. If BTC’s price rises more than the price of the top altcoins (or decreases less), it suggests a Bitcoin season is underway.
Conversely, if BTC’s price drops more than altcoins (or increases less), it’s a sign that the altcoin market is dominant (value above 75). Of course, most of the time, the chart operates within a neutral range from 25 to 75. This indicates that both the Bitcoin and altcoin markets currently lack dominance in the cryptocurrency space.
Moreover, the altcoin season index includes three time frames: monthly, quarterly (seasonal), and yearly. In the long term, we are currently witnessing a clear Bitcoin season in the second season.
The historic low point seen in January 2019 excited investors. The preceding phase, a deeper accumulation phase, extended from May 2019 to June 2020. Adjusting this 13-month timeframe to today’s market conditions, we can observe that the altcoin market might not rise as anticipated until September 2024.
A new altcoin price surge coincides with Halving, occurring about six months later, supported by historical data. Additionally, most experts expect BTC’s ATH to occur in early 2025 as inflation drops to 2%.
In 2017, the altcoin market underwent an exponential price increase, taking TOTAL2 to its peak of $474.50 billion in January 2018. The market then went through a sharp decline for 12 months until hitting a bottom of $36.75 billion in December 2018.