TD Cowen Bank predicts that Ethereum ETF spot funds are unlikely to receive approval this year, as reported by Kitco on January 29th. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must make a decision soon regarding proposed rule changes that would allow Ethereum ETF spot funds to be listed and traded on stock exchanges. TD Cowen argues that approval is unlikely to happen quickly, stating:
“The SEC could ultimately reject the rule changes, leading to new filings or litigation… Or it may take another year or two to resolve.”
In that case, any approval for Ethereum ETF spot funds is unlikely to occur until late 2025 or early 2026, according to the bank’s assessment.
The SEC is expected to make a decision on VanEck’s immediate-delivery Ethereum ETF application by May 23rd, but it is not obligated to approve the fund. The regulatory agency is expected to simultaneously make decisions on similar filings.
Different sources have shared varying opinions on the likelihood of approval in May. Polymarket gives a 47% approval rate, while a JP Morgan executive offers a 50% chance of approval. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart is a bit more optimistic, predicting a 60% chance of approval.