Analyzing Bitcoin trends since its inception in 2009 highlights a recurring theme: significant price declines preceding each halving event, setting the stage for subsequent market rallies.
For instance, in 2012, Bitcoin experienced a notable price drop of 50.78% just a few months before the halving. However, it subsequently soared to new highs. Similar patterns were observed in 2016 and 2020, with pre-halving corrections of 40.37% and a substantial 63.09% drop, followed by robust recoveries post-halving.
By early 2024, Bitcoin had achieved a growth of 21.17%, sparking speculation of an impending bull market. However, historical models suggest that the market may brace for a correction, potentially dipping below $45,000 before rebounding post-halving.
The significance of these halving events cannot be overstated. Following the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin witnessed staggering increases of 11,000%, 3,072%, and 700%, respectively. These bull phases lasted from 365 to 549 days, reflecting the profound impact of halving on market dynamics.
If the upcoming bull market mirrors past trajectories, expectations could set the stage for the next Bitcoin market peak around April or October 2025.
Amid cyclical models, PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow trading model presents a strategic approach to navigating the Bitcoin market. Advocating for buying six months before halving and selling 18 months afterward, this strategy aims to capitalize on the predictable cyclical behavior of Bitcoin prices. While not a predictive model, historically, it has outperformed Bitcoin price trends, indicating the potential for a fourfold increase in the current cycle.
Predictions about the next bull market are based on the analysis of Bitcoin’s historical price fluctuations and strategic trading models like PlanB’s. Once the initial phase of the bull market is identified, this period sets the stage for significant price surges following the April 2024 halving event.